Pages

Thursday, 12 December 2013

Is this world based on chance OR the events happening in this world can be pre-determined?

The study of probability mostly deals with combining different events and studying these events alongside each other. Aristotle said, 

"The probable is what usually happens."

You can't predict the future, but you can use mathematical probability to determine how likely it is that something will -- or won't -- happen. As per my interpretation, YES events happening in this world can be pre-determined. As in life lots of stuff happens, like good stuff and bad stuff and if we can understand the systematic patters and conduct some experiments that why stuff happens than we can predict. In this way we can prevent bad stuff and we can promote good stuff.

In the movie Forest Gump, the character of Forest Gump said: 

“Life is like a box of chocolates you never know what you are going to get”.

I don’t like the statement because as a statistician, using the probability distribution and random experiments, I can predict. Each event happening in this world has some probability and this is most likely based on historical data. An alternative account of probability emphasizes the role of prediction – predicting future observations on the basis of past observations, future observations should behave like past observations.
If we look into the definition of Probability, it is a measure of likelihood that the event will occur and for every event we have different chances that whether it will happen or not. So, we can say that Probability helps us in predetermining the events happening in this world.
From real world, we can take a very common example of a coin flipped before starting a game. Now that event has only two outcomes that whether it will be head or tail. Now by using probability we can find out or predetermine the likelihood of each outcome of an event. For example;

Life Expectancy
Life expectancy is based upon the number of years similar groups have lived in the past. These ages are used as guidelines by entities such as financial advisers to help clients prepare for their retirement years.

Weather
If you are planning an outdoor event such as a wedding, you'll want to check the probability of rain. Meteorologists predict weather based upon patterns that have occurred in previous years into forecasts.

6 comments:

Asma said...

Well explained. Really very helpful

Asma said...

Well Explained. Really very helpful

Asma said...

well explained

Anonymous said...

well explained

Unknown said...

Thanks alot Asma.... :)

Anonymous said...

Explained with facts, a nice initiative indeed Haider.