Pages

Tuesday, 24 December 2013

StationFi

www.stationfi.com

As Youtube is ban in Pakistan, so i found another website that is similar to Youtube but this site is purely Pakistani. I was searching for some songs over the internet and found this awesome website www.stationfi.com As its new so i think its traffic is less as compare to other Pakistani websites these days.But i like the content and the theme of StationFi The company should go for optimization of the website as its not searchable over the google. i wonder why such an awesome website is not searchable on google. StationFi should be available on the google

Thursday, 12 December 2013

Is this world based on chance OR the events happening in this world can be pre-determined?

The study of probability mostly deals with combining different events and studying these events alongside each other. Aristotle said, 

"The probable is what usually happens."

You can't predict the future, but you can use mathematical probability to determine how likely it is that something will -- or won't -- happen. As per my interpretation, YES events happening in this world can be pre-determined. As in life lots of stuff happens, like good stuff and bad stuff and if we can understand the systematic patters and conduct some experiments that why stuff happens than we can predict. In this way we can prevent bad stuff and we can promote good stuff.

In the movie Forest Gump, the character of Forest Gump said: 

“Life is like a box of chocolates you never know what you are going to get”.

I don’t like the statement because as a statistician, using the probability distribution and random experiments, I can predict. Each event happening in this world has some probability and this is most likely based on historical data. An alternative account of probability emphasizes the role of prediction – predicting future observations on the basis of past observations, future observations should behave like past observations.
If we look into the definition of Probability, it is a measure of likelihood that the event will occur and for every event we have different chances that whether it will happen or not. So, we can say that Probability helps us in predetermining the events happening in this world.
From real world, we can take a very common example of a coin flipped before starting a game. Now that event has only two outcomes that whether it will be head or tail. Now by using probability we can find out or predetermine the likelihood of each outcome of an event. For example;

Life Expectancy
Life expectancy is based upon the number of years similar groups have lived in the past. These ages are used as guidelines by entities such as financial advisers to help clients prepare for their retirement years.

Weather
If you are planning an outdoor event such as a wedding, you'll want to check the probability of rain. Meteorologists predict weather based upon patterns that have occurred in previous years into forecasts.

Why We Invest....


As per an economist, when people earn a dollar; they do one of two things with it: they either consume it in the form of spending or save it. A distinction can be made between saving and investment. Some people keep money in the bank that yields nominal interest with minimal risk. Assume you are earning 10% interest per year on your bank deposit and the inflation rate turns out to be 13% in that particular year. In that case you are actually losing 3% per year. Investment in the stock market can make abrupt returns, though it does carry risk. KSE has invincibly risen more than 40% this year. This is the core reason that motivates people invest in financial markets.
“Investing is risky but saving is not.”
Reasons for Investing
People invest to …
1)   Supplement their income through :
a)   Periodic Dividend and Interest receipts; &
b)   Capital gains though price appreciation

2)   Experience the excitement of the investment process

Factors behind Investments in Stock Market

An investor while investing in the stock market keeps in mind the following factors.


·       Opportunity Cost: It is the cost an investor bears as a result of preferring an investment (stocks) and losing its alternative (saving account). The investor invests in the stock market if the opportunity cost is lower thereon.

·        Tradeoff between Risk & Return Risk comes in many forms, but when talking about the risk-return tradeoff, the primary measure of risk is volatility. For instance, stocks can fluctuate widely from one year to the next (or even from one day to the next), whereas the swing in bond prices tends to be less dramatic. Tradeoff between risk and return is based on the concept that an investor should be compensated for risk in an investment vehicle with equal magnitude of return i.e. risk and return should be at the same level.

·        Liquidity: Common stocks and bonds are traded on exchanges. Liquidity is the ease and ability of selling your investment in the marketplace without losing money.

·        Term: How long investor is planning to hold his investment.

Whereas in the insured saving accountholders will get the profits on yearly or interim basis only, the tendency of gains or profits is higher and not time restricted.