Tuesday, 24 December 2013
Thursday, 12 December 2013
Is this world based on chance OR the events happening in this world can be pre-determined?
The study of
probability mostly deals with combining different events and studying these
events alongside each other. Aristotle said,
"The probable is what usually
happens."
You can't
predict the future, but you can use mathematical probability to determine how likely it is that something will -- or
won't -- happen. As per my interpretation, YES events happening in this world can be
pre-determined. As in life lots of stuff happens, like good stuff and bad
stuff and if we can understand the systematic patters and conduct some
experiments that why stuff happens than we can predict. In this way we can
prevent bad stuff and we can promote good stuff.
In the movie Forest Gump, the character of Forest Gump said:
“Life is like a box of chocolates
you never know what you are going to get”.
I don’t like the statement because as a statistician, using the
probability distribution and random experiments, I can predict. Each event
happening in this world has some probability and this is most likely based on
historical data. An alternative account of probability emphasizes the role of
prediction – predicting future observations on the basis of past observations,
future observations should behave like past observations.
If we look into the definition of Probability, it is a measure of
likelihood that the event will occur and for every event we have different
chances that whether it will happen or not. So, we can say that Probability
helps us in predetermining the events happening in this world.
From real world, we can take a very common example of a coin
flipped before starting a game. Now that event has only two outcomes that
whether it will be head or tail. Now by using probability we can find out or
predetermine the likelihood of each outcome of an event. For example;
Life Expectancy
Life expectancy is based upon the number of years similar groups have lived in the past. These
ages are used as guidelines by entities such as financial advisers to help
clients prepare for their retirement years.
Weather
If you are planning an outdoor event such as a wedding, you'll
want to check the probability of rain. Meteorologists predict weather based
upon patterns that have occurred in previous years into forecasts.
Why We Invest....
As per an economist, when people earn a dollar; they do one
of two things with it: they either consume it in the form of spending or save
it. A distinction can be made between saving and investment. Some people keep money
in the bank that yields nominal interest with minimal risk. Assume you are earning
10% interest per year on your bank deposit and the inflation rate turns out to
be 13% in that particular year. In that case you are actually losing 3% per
year. Investment in the stock market can make abrupt returns, though it
does carry risk. KSE has invincibly
risen more than 40% this year.
This is the core reason that motivates people invest in financial markets.
“Investing is risky but saving is not.”
Reasons for Investing
People invest to …
1)
Supplement their income through :
a)
Periodic Dividend and Interest
receipts; &
b)
Capital gains though price appreciation
2)
Experience the excitement of the investment
process
Factors behind
Investments in Stock Market
An investor while investing in the stock market keeps in mind the following factors.
· Opportunity Cost: It is the cost an investor bears as a result of preferring an investment (stocks) and losing its alternative (saving account). The investor invests in the stock market if the opportunity cost is lower thereon.
·
Tradeoff between Risk
& Return Risk
comes in many forms, but when talking about the risk-return tradeoff, the
primary measure of risk is volatility. For instance, stocks can fluctuate
widely from one year to the next (or even from one day to the next), whereas
the swing in bond prices tends to be less dramatic. Tradeoff between risk and
return is based on the concept that an investor should be compensated for risk in an investment vehicle with equal magnitude
of return i.e. risk and return should be at the same level.
· Liquidity: Common stocks and bonds are traded on exchanges. Liquidity is the ease and ability of selling your investment in the marketplace without losing money.
· Term: How long investor is planning to hold his investment.
Whereas
in the insured saving accountholders will get the profits on yearly or interim
basis only, the tendency of gains or profits is higher and not time restricted.
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